Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.22 – 266

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 97.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±11.2

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 148.72Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 12.08Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 177.42Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±11

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 23.07Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 123.12Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 119.81Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 1369, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 1369, 4020

Auto

59.3 18%

Teleop

180.9 54%

Endgame

92.1 28%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7111, 6517, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 6517, 2783

Auto

44.1 17%

Teleop

153.8 60%

Endgame

57.7 23%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score338.2pts

Blue projected score266pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 242–362
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.8Season APEX645

59.3Auto44.1

180.9Teleop153.8

92.1Endgame57.7

0Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	34
teleop	91	152
endgame	25	26
foul	0	20
total	178	232

Result

Final score

178 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 97.1 pts

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