Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355 – 258.88

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.3 ±11.9

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 152.78Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 21.46Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 180.76Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645 ±11

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 20.28Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 121.15Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 117.45Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 7917, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

355 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 7917, 4020

Auto

59.4 17%

Teleop

187.3 54%

Endgame

98.1 28%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7111, 6517, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 6517, 2783

Auto

43.5 17%

Teleop

155.4 61%

Endgame

53.8 21%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score355pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.1
Score range: 235–379
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.3Season APEX645

59.4Auto43.5

187.3Teleop155.4

98.1Endgame53.8

8Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	49
teleop	161	140
endgame	64	89
foul	5	45
total	289	323

Result

Final score

289 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts

Match videos

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