Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.12 – 65.22

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 103.1 ±41.8

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.3Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 37.09Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 35.73Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±16.7

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 19.8Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 5.7Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 39.72Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9995, 11177, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 11177, 8169

Auto

12.8 13%

Teleop

64.8 63%

Endgame

24.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 8805, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 8805, 8725

Auto

13.9 22%

Teleop

31.2 49%

Endgame

18.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score65.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.9
Score range: 45–132
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 111.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

103.1Season APEX280.7

12.8Auto13.9

64.8Teleop31.2

24.8Endgame18.4

59Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	14
teleop	18	42
endgame	2	29
foul	0	15
total	22	100

Result

Final score

22 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts