Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.26 – 50.02

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±41.7

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 0.69Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.71Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 23.86Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±16.7

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 13.3Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 1.34Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 35.38Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7497, 9996, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7497, 9996, 10114

Auto

10.2 34%

Teleop

13.7 46%

Endgame

6.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 8805, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 8805, 8725

Auto

10.9 23%

Teleop

21.8 46%

Endgame

15.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score37.3pts

Blue projected score50pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.8
Score range: 17–70
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX280.7

10.2Auto10.9

13.7Teleop21.8

6.1Endgame15.1

44Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	23
teleop	22	64
endgame	25	32
foul	0	0
total	52	119

Result

Final score

52 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 41.9 pts