Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.21 – 102.57

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±13.9

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 36.04Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 31.64Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 18.53Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±13.4

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 35.86Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 26.29Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7645

Season APEX -Event APEX 40.42Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10034, 9501, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10034, 9501, 8806

Auto

10.5 13%

Teleop

41.1 53%

Endgame

26.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7636, 9427, 7645

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7636, 9427, 7645

Auto

13.8 16%

Teleop

45.8 52%

Endgame

29.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 66–123
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX218.3

10.5Auto13.8

41.1Teleop45.8

26.5Endgame29

12Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	5
teleop	51	13
endgame	20	26
foul	5	0
total	114	44

Result

Final score

114 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts