Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.44 – 62.71

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±15.8

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 87.21Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX -10.1Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 50.33Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±16.7

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 15.41Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 5.36Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 41.94Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9126, 8585, 6998

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9126, 8585, 6998

Auto

24.6 19%

Teleop

74.1 56%

Endgame

34.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 8805, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 8805, 8725

Auto

7.9 13%

Teleop

30.6 51%

Endgame

21.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.4pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.7
Score range: 43–147
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX280.7

24.6Auto7.9

74.1Teleop30.6

34.2Endgame21

24Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	123	2
endgame	43	0
foul	5	0
total	218	23

Result

Final score

218 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts