Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.85 – 35

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.8 ±43.5

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 68.36Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 38.33Rank 15Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 65.16Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±41.7

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -1.39Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.44Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 22.95Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6947, 9997, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6947, 9997, 7130

Auto

31.6 19%

Teleop

89.8 55%

Endgame

42.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7497, 9996, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

35 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7497, 9996, 10114

Auto

11.9 45%

Teleop

12.8 48%

Endgame

1.9 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score171.9pts

Blue projected score35pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.9
Score range: 16–191
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.8Season APEX173.9

31.6Auto11.9

89.8Teleop12.8

42.9Endgame1.9

39Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	10
teleop	130	22
endgame	79	17
foul	15	5
total	261	54

Result

Final score

261 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts