Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.96 – 105.31

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±13.4

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 36.2Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 28.44Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7645

Season APEX -Event APEX 44.32Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.1 ±41.8

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 33.84Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 33.48Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 37.99Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7636, 9427, 7645

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7636, 9427, 7645

Auto

13.4 13%

Teleop

56.1 53%

Endgame

35.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9995, 11177, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 11177, 8169

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

58.6 58%

Endgame

28.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score105.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.6
Score range: 86–128
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX103.1

13.4Auto13.6

56.1Teleop58.6

35.6Endgame28.8

11Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	29	88
endgame	13	4
foul	35	20
total	94	131

Result

Final score

94 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 pts