Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.38 – 72.47

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.1 ±13.9

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 37.7Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 36.88Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 23.8Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.7 ±16.7

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 7.85Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 40.33Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10034, 9501, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10034, 9501, 8806

Auto

19.0 21%

Teleop

45.6 51%

Endgame

24.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 8805, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 8805, 8725

Auto

14.1 21%

Teleop

34.1 50%

Endgame

20.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score98.4pts

Blue projected score72.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 52–118
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.1Season APEX280.7

19Auto14.1

45.6Teleop34.1

24.2Endgame20

32Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	33	53
endgame	27	31
foul	15	25
total	89	127

Result

Final score

89 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 32 pts