Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.87 – 49.91

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.6 ±17.5

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 14.4Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 1.03Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 25.44Rank 29Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.6 ±41.8

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -6.17Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 12.53Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 43.55Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 8585, 6083

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9501, 8585, 6083

Auto

8.8 27%

Teleop

18.2 55%

Endgame

6.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9996, 7497, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9996, 7497, 8595

Auto

10.6 20%

Teleop

39.1 75%

Endgame

2.5 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score40.9pts

Blue projected score49.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 21–70
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 109.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.6Season APEX305.6

8.8Auto10.6

18.2Teleop39.1

6.1Endgame2.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	37
teleop	10	34
endgame	2	31
foul	0	5
total	19	107

Result

Final score

19 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable