Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.76 – 107.92

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.3 ±42.1

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.84Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 62.32Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7645

Season APEX -Event APEX 39.6Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.6 ±18.5

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 71.34Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 13.09Rank 29Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 23.49Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9995, 6947, 7645

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9995, 6947, 7645

Auto

28.9 23%

Teleop

68.9 54%

Endgame

30.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7130, 6083, 11229

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7130, 6083, 11229

Auto

24.0 23%

Teleop

51.1 49%

Endgame

29.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score134.8pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 89–154
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.3Season APEX260.6

28.9Auto24

68.9Teleop51.1

30.6Endgame29.3

33Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	70	38
endgame	71	14
foul	0	5
total	156	76

Result

Final score

156 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable