Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.36 – 0

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±12.7

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 21.64Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 46.34Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 54.38Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.4 ±18.5

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 17.6Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -23.35Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -3.44Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8806, 8169, 6998

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8806, 8169, 6998

Auto

17.0 14%

Teleop

56.6 46%

Endgame

49.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11177, 7497, 8805

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.2 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11177, 7497, 8805

Auto

13.8 0%

Teleop

-13.7 100%

Endgame

-7.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score-9.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.4
Score range: -19–141
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 106.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.1Season APEX108.4

17Auto13.8

56.6Teleop-13.7

49Endgame-7.5

56Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	11
teleop	38	56
endgame	39	19
foul	0	5
total	86	91

Result

Final score

86 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable