Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.1 – 158.71

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±40.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 37.21Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 27.14Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.75Rank 27Record 1-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.2 ±16

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 5.41Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 23.96Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 129.34Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 6245, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8725, 6245, 9999

Auto

-1.0 0%

Teleop

45.2 62%

Endgame

28.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8790, 9501, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8790, 9501, 8595

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

72.7 54%

Endgame

41.2 30%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score80.1pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.6
Score range: 61–178
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.3Season APEX383.2

-1Auto21.5

45.2Teleop72.7

28.3Endgame41.2

0Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	33
teleop	54	116
endgame	9	54
foul	15	15
total	94	218

Result

Final score

94 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable