Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

20.7 – 15.98

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±18.5

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -32.72Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX -13.56Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 66.98Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 64.7 ±17

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 25.5Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -7.64Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -1.88Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7497, 8585, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7497, 8585, 7130

Auto

15.8 100%

Teleop

-31.2 0%

Endgame

26.4 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6245, 8805, 8790

/ 100 compat

Projected

16 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6245, 8805, 8790

Auto

8.1 45%

Teleop

11.7 65%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score20.7pts

Blue projected score16pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: -3–40
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 95 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.7Season APEX64.7

15.8Auto8.1

-31.2Teleop11.7

26.4Endgame-1.7

103Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	23	20
endgame	5	20
foul	0	0
total	44	51

Result

Final score

44 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable