Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.88 – 62.58

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 24.8 ±41.5

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 49.56Rank 15Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 38.67Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX -5.35Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.1 ±41.8

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 32.02Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 3.53Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 27.03Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9997, 6245, 8585

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9997, 6245, 8585

Auto

6.4 9%

Teleop

68.0 92%

Endgame

-0.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8169, 11177, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8169, 11177, 9995

Auto

4.4 7%

Teleop

32.8 56%

Endgame

21.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score82.9pts

Blue projected score62.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.3
Score range: 44–102
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

24.8Season APEX103.1

6.4Auto4.4

68Teleop32.8

-0.2Endgame21.8

87Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	30
teleop	11	86
endgame	0	22
foul	5	5
total	24	143

Result

Final score

24 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable