Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.9 – 48.62

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.6 ±19.7

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 28.4Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 11.89Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 27.61Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.6 ±41.4

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 66.88Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -14.4Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX -3.86Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11229, 8790, 7636

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 8790, 7636

Auto

23.8 41%

Teleop

26.8 46%

Endgame

7.1 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9126, 9996, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9126, 9996, 8806

Auto

14.7 26%

Teleop

35.9 62%

Endgame

7.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score48.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 30–87
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.6Season APEX447.6

23.8Auto14.7

26.8Teleop35.9

7.1Endgame7

54Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	20	150
endgame	13	47
foul	0	0
total	45	217

Result

Final score

45 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable