Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.2 – 171.98

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±15.6

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 18.39Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX -14.93Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 46.74Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±12.5

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 40.2Rank 29Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7645

Season APEX -Event APEX 75.06Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 56.72Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 8805, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9501, 8805, 8725

Auto

6.1 13%

Teleop

14.3 31%

Endgame

25.4 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6083, 7645, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6083, 7645, 10114

Auto

30.5 20%

Teleop

101.0 65%

Endgame

24.2 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.62 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score50.2pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.8
Score range: 31–191
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.4Season APEX212.1

6.1Auto30.5

14.3Teleop101

25.4Endgame24.2

3Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	23	6
endgame	38	21
foul	0	5
total	73	45

Result

Final score

73 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable