Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.35 – 72.57

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±16.4

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -1.66Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 71.88Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 145.13Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.1 ±16

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 27.6Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 38.15Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 6.82Rank 28Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11177, 7130, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11177, 7130, 8595

Auto

30.3 15%

Teleop

109.2 55%

Endgame

58.0 29%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 9427, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11229, 9427, 7673

Auto

11.0 18%

Teleop

48.4 79%

Endgame

1.9 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score215.4pts

Blue projected score72.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.8
Score range: 54–234
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.8Season APEX285.1

30.3Auto11

109.2Teleop48.4

58Endgame1.9

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	6
teleop	125	24
endgame	66	23
foul	5	0
total	229	53

Result

Final score

229 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable