Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.03 – 142.66

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±42.1

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 126.96Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.17Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -12.1Rank 28Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417 ±15.6

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 52.88Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 66.04Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 23.74Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8595, 9995, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8595, 9995, 7673

Auto

17.8 14%

Teleop

82.6 63%

Endgame

31.4 24%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 10114, 8790

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6998, 10114, 8790

Auto

19.3 13%

Teleop

93.2 63%

Endgame

35.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score125pts

Blue projected score142.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.6
Score range: 106–162
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.8Season APEX417

17.8Auto19.3

82.6Teleop93.2

31.4Endgame35

181Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	21
teleop	113	22
endgame	54	11
foul	35	25
total	211	79

Result

Final score

211 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable