Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.29 – 70.67

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 108.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.5 ±12.2

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 99.53Rank 4Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 48.91Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 67.85Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±17.7

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 5.71Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 43.6Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 21.36Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9126, 8169, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9126, 8169, 8725

Auto

35.7 17%

Teleop

116.0 56%

Endgame

55.3 27%

Strengths

· 9126 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9501, 6947, 10034

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9501, 6947, 10034

Auto

11.0 18%

Teleop

20.0 32%

Endgame

30.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score216.3pts

Blue projected score70.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.6
Score range: 52–235
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.5Season APEX393

35.7Auto11

116Teleop20

55.3Endgame30.8

85Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	29
teleop	36	75
endgame	38	47
foul	5	5
total	85	156

Result

Final score

85 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 108.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable