Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.21 – 113.53

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.8 ±20.2

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 33.81Rank 29Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 49.52Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8805NKST36

Provisional

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 4.88Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±8.5

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 31.79Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 83.71Rank 1Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX -1.97Rank 18Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6083, 7636, 8805

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6083, 7636, 8805

Auto

21.8 23%

Teleop

62.9 65%

Endgame

11.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6245, 7632, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6245, 7632, 9427

Auto

24.2 24%

Teleop

45.9 45%

Endgame

31.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.3
Score range: 69–133
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.8Season APEX358.5

21.8Auto24.2

62.9Teleop45.9

11.9Endgame31.8

4Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	9	134
endgame	2	39
foul	15	0
total	35	183

Result

Final score

35 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 61.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable