Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.34 – 131.87

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±41.2

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 2.9Rank 9Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 67.25Rank 19Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -13.81Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±42.2

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 37.88Rank 14Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 30.94Rank 15Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 63.05Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9501, 10114, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9501, 10114, 9996

Auto

12.8 22%

Teleop

36.8 64%

Endgame

8.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 9997, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6998, 9997, 7130

Auto

27.2 21%

Teleop

54.2 42%

Endgame

49.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56.3pts

Blue projected score131.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.5
Score range: 37–151
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.7Season APEX378.2

12.8Auto27.2

36.8Teleop54.2

8Endgame49.2

24Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	29
teleop	32	127
endgame	14	48
foul	5	0
total	60	204

Result

Final score

60 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable