Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 124.36

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±19.1

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -38.61Rank 28Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 3.03Rank 20Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8790Departure

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 19.82Rank 26Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 72.2 ±12.2

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 21.76Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7645

Season APEX -Event APEX 51.25Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 51.35Rank 16Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7673, 11177, 8790

/ 100 compat

Projected

-15.8 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7673, 11177, 8790

Auto

-3.2 16%

Teleop

1.3 0%

Endgame

-18.2 91%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8584, 7645, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8584, 7645, 8169

Auto

19.4 17%

Teleop

63.8 54%

Endgame

34.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score-15.8pts

Blue projected score124.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.4
Score range: -19–143
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.5Season APEX72.2

-3.2Auto19.4

1.3Teleop63.8

-18.2Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	26
teleop	4	78
endgame	5	31
foul	0	0
total	17	135

Result

Final score

17 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable