Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.38 – 83.56

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 86.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.2 ±16.6

10034GammaLand

Season APEX 251.5Event APEX 32.14Rank 10Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 66.85Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 8.39Rank 25Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.8 ±17

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 20.22Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 36.24Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7130Future Shock

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 27.1Rank 11Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10034, 7636, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10034, 7636, 8806

Auto

20.5 20%

Teleop

54.8 53%

Endgame

28.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6245, 6947, 7130

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6245, 6947, 7130

Auto

13.1 15%

Teleop

64.4 75%

Endgame

7.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score107.4pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 64–127
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.2Season APEX191.8

20.5Auto13.1

54.8Teleop64.4

28Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	31
teleop	12	73
endgame	13	63
foul	0	15
total	32	182

Result

Final score

32 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 86.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable