Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.81 – 62.58

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.9 ±41.9

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 43.69Rank 12Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -7.12Rank 28Record 1-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.24Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 42.4 ±41.2

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 3.3Rank 8Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6245

Season APEX -Event APEX 24.62Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status -Confidence -

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 34.66Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 7673, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8725, 7673, 9996

Auto

6.5 13%

Teleop

24.1 47%

Endgame

20.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7497, 6245, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7497, 6245, 9995

Auto

6.3 11%

Teleop

30.8 55%

Endgame

18.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score52.8pts

Blue projected score62.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample98alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 32–84
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 47 vs event baseline 117.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.9Season APEX42.4

6.5Auto6.3

24.1Teleop30.8

20.5Endgame18.6

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	7
teleop	8	9
endgame	2	17
foul	0	0
total	14	33

Result

Final score

14 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable