Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.52 – 416.24

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 781.7 ±9.9

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 35.35Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 163.9Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 228.27Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.3 ±7.8

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 39.06Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 211.08Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 166.1Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2854, 3045, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2854, 3045, 973

Auto

81.6 19%

Teleop

255.1 61%

Endgame

82.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 62%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 6962, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 6962, 5940

Auto

101.5 25%

Teleop

233.8 56%

Endgame

78.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 62%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.44 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score427.5pts

Blue projected score416.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 366–478
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 781 vs event baseline 276.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

781.7Season APEX520.3

81.6Auto101.5

255.1Teleop233.8

82.9Endgame78.7

5Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	76
teleop	173	234
endgame	73	62
foul	40	0
total	409	372

Result

Final score

409 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Match videos

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