Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.67 – 165.22

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.1 ±16.4

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 52.16Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 42.86Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 29.65Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.6 ±8.5

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.43Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 80.97Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 81.82Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10185, 766, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10185, 766, 4159

Auto

25.5 21%

Teleop

57.5 48%

Endgame

37.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 8793, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 8793, 6418

Auto

37.9 24%

Teleop

80.4 50%

Endgame

41.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score124.7pts

Blue projected score165.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.5
Score range: 76–214
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 272.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.1Season APEX291.6

25.5Auto37.9

57.5Teleop80.4

37.4Endgame41.3

1Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	40
teleop	47	117
endgame	24	27
foul	0	45
total	99	229

Result

Final score

99 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Match videos

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