Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.61 – 136.28

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

478 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 781.7 ±9.9

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 32.06Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 163.53Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 226.02Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.1 ±16.4

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 55.58Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 47.04Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 33.66Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2854, 3045, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.6 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2854, 3045, 973

Auto

90.9 22%

Teleop

240.1 58%

Endgame

80.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 62%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10185, 766, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10185, 766, 4159

Auto

25.8 20%

Teleop

70.8 54%

Endgame

33.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 62%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.31 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score421.6pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 62%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 285.3
Score range: 87–471
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 584 vs event baseline 271.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

781.7Season APEX275.1

90.9Auto25.8

240.1Teleop70.8

80.4Endgame33.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	27
teleop	314	26
endgame	106	53
foul	0	0
total	478	106

Result

Final score

478 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Match videos

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