Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

627.7 – 194.3

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

689 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±7.1

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 15.98Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 306.36Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 305.36Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.9 ±10.5

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 71.89Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 96.26Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 26.15Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 581, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

627.7 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 581, 604

Auto

107.1 17%

Teleop

384.8 63%

Endgame

120.4 20%

Strengths

· 581 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8048, 9584, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8048, 9584, 9470

Auto

29.4 17%

Teleop

100.1 57%

Endgame

44.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.32 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score627.7pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 61%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 433.4
Score range: 146–676
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 914 vs event baseline 265.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX653.9

107.1Auto29.4

384.8Teleop100.1

120.4Endgame44.7

2Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	25
teleop	381	134
endgame	169	66
foul	0	0
total	689	225

Result

Final score

689 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Match videos

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