Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

432.8 – 459.09

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

494 – 426

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.3 ±7.8

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 45.08Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 216.3Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 171.42Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 722.5 ±9.8

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 48.74Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 272.91Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 137.44Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 6962, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 6962, 5940

Auto

101.1 23%

Teleop

242.5 56%

Endgame

87.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7667, 841, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7667, 841, 6036

Auto

99.2 22%

Teleop

266.1 60%

Endgame

80.2 18%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 53%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.04 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score432.8pts

Blue projected score459.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 381–511
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 920 vs event baseline 288.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.3Season APEX722.5

101.1Auto99.2

242.5Teleop266.1

87.4Endgame80.2

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	146	110
teleop	272	185
endgame	76	131
foul	0	0
total	494	426

Result

Final score

494 – 426

Prediction missed · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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