Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

644.8 – 421.18

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

672 – 560

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±7.1

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 23.01Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 310.32Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 311.47Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 781.7 ±9.9

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 34.39Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 160.8Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 225.99Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 581, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

644.8 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 581, 604

Auto

117.2 18%

Teleop

386.4 61%

Endgame

130.8 21%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 3045, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2854, 3045, 973

Auto

89.2 22%

Teleop

238.1 58%

Endgame

79.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.24 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score644.8pts

Blue projected score421.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.6
Score range: 370–696
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1232 vs event baseline 282.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX781.7

117.2Auto89.2

386.4Teleop238.1

130.8Endgame79.9

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	97
teleop	370	259
endgame	180	189
foul	5	15
total	672	560

Result

Final score

672 – 560

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Match videos

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