Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.46 – 252.08

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 139.7 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.4 ±13.1

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 58.13Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 92.04Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 54.29Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.6 ±11.1

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 91.75Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 68.29Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 92.04Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6036, 6410, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6036, 6410, 5940

Auto

46.1 23%

Teleop

112.0 57%

Endgame

38.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9584, 6884, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9584, 6884, 604

Auto

29.2 12%

Teleop

169.4 69%

Endgame

48.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.66 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204.5pts

Blue projected score252.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 167–289
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 204.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.4Season APEX469.6

46.1Auto29.2

112Teleop169.4

38.3Endgame48.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	61
teleop	41	230
endgame	0	90
foul	5	30
total	84	411

Result

Final score

84 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 139.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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