Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.69 – 206.11

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 96.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.7 ±7.8

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 112.92Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 45.71Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 25.06Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.3 ±10.5

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 26.21Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 8.62Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 171.28Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5507, NaN, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5507, NaN, 9470

Auto

34.7 20%

Teleop

96.8 55%

Endgame

45.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5924, 10339, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5924, 10339, 3045

Auto

38.5 19%

Teleop

121.6 60%

Endgame

44.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.53 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score183.7pts

Blue projected score206.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 130–260
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 299.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.7Season APEX491.3

34.7Auto38.5

96.8Teleop121.6

45.8Endgame44.1

27Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	31
teleop	108	6
endgame	15	0
foul	0	5
total	154	42

Result

Final score

154 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 96.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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