Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.67 – 253.5

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±11.3

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 55.27Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 16.85Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 40.55Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 901.8 ±9.3

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 132.87Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 83.27Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 37.36Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 199, NaN, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 199, NaN, 4159

Auto

14.0 14%

Teleop

67.9 66%

Endgame

20.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 8048, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6036, 8048, 9470

Auto

55.7 22%

Teleop

138.6 56%

Endgame

53.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score253.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.8
Score range: 65–302
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 269.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.8Season APEX901.8

14Auto55.7

67.9Teleop138.6

20.6Endgame53.5

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	20	54
endgame	4	21
foul	30	30
total	77	138

Result

Final score

77 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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