Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.01 – 199.03

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.5 ±11.3

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 35.73Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 29.4Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 4.88Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.5 ±11.7

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 29.77Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 121.55Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 47.71Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4186, 4159, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4186, 4159, NaN

Auto

21.4 29%

Teleop

22.0 30%

Endgame

30.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 846, 199

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6884, 846, 199

Auto

28.5 17%

Teleop

108.8 63%

Endgame

35.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score70pts

Blue projected score199pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129
Score range: 16–253
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 299.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.5Season APEX325.5

21.4Auto28.5

22Teleop108.8

30.5Endgame35.3

24Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	16	186
endgame	13	27
foul	5	10
total	45	239

Result

Final score

45 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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