Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.78 – 390.4

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 106.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±15.9

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 59.58Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 17.44Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 79.76Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.6 ±10.5

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 325.42Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -5Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 69.98Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10185, 6884, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10185, 6884, 8793

Auto

26.7 19%

Teleop

97.7 69%

Endgame

17.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 581, 6506, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.4 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 581, 6506, 766

Auto

73.5 19%

Teleop

200.4 53%

Endgame

106.1 28%

Strengths

· 581 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score156.8pts

Blue projected score390.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.6
Score range: 109–438
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 267.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.4Season APEX555.6

26.7Auto73.5

97.7Teleop200.4

17.9Endgame106.1

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	61
teleop	67	126
endgame	49	8
foul	0	5
total	135	200

Result

Final score

135 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 106.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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