Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.06 – 358.11

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.5 ±9.8

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 297.93Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 71.94Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 86.19Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.8 ±8.5

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 91.07Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 5.03Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 262.01Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 766, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 604, 766, 6418

Auto

55.7 12%

Teleop

263.9 59%

Endgame

131.1 29%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8048, NaN, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8048, NaN, 841

Auto

71.7 21%

Teleop

213.8 62%

Endgame

57.9 17%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score456.1pts

Blue projected score358.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.9
Score range: 310–504
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 265.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.5Season APEX404.8

55.7Auto71.7

263.9Teleop213.8

131.1Endgame57.9

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	91
teleop	217	144
endgame	67	56
foul	45	5
total	424	296

Result

Final score

424 – 296

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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