Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.66 – 83.4

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±11.7

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 33Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 136.58Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 8.08Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.1 ±9.4

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 8.65Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 44.6Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 30.15Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4159, 5940, 6884

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4159, 5940, 6884

Auto

54.9 32%

Teleop

90.4 53%

Endgame

26.7 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 4186, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 4186, 9470

Auto

16.9 20%

Teleop

49.0 58%

Endgame

18.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score177.7pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.3
Score range: 35–226
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 266.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.8Season APEX472.1

54.9Auto16.9

90.4Teleop49

26.7Endgame18

3Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	5
teleop	152	49
endgame	10	63
foul	15	0
total	265	117

Result

Final score

265 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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