Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.21 – 228.44

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±11.7

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 38.48Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 214.22Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -4.49Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.7 ±11

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 90.67Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 106.81Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 30.96Rank 31Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4186, 973, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4186, 973, 5924

Auto

59.2 24%

Teleop

127.3 52%

Endgame

57.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6418, 8048, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6418, 8048, 668

Auto

37.0 17%

Teleop

106.2 48%

Endgame

77.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score228.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 181–295
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 261.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX439.7

59.2Auto37

127.3Teleop106.2

57.5Endgame77.1

14Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	50
teleop	178	57
endgame	81	4
foul	5	20
total	324	131

Result

Final score

324 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 86.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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