Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.29 – 212.51

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.9 ±7.8

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 217.6Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 135.98Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 45.71Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.5 ±10.5

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 67.74Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 173.83Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -29.06Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 6036, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.3 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6962, 6036, NaN

Auto

81.8 20%

Teleop

227.0 56%

Endgame

93.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8048, 5940, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.5 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8048, 5940, 6506

Auto

63.2 31%

Teleop

111.5 55%

Endgame

28.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score399.3pts

Blue projected score212.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.8
Score range: 159–453
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 299.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.9Season APEX610.5

81.8Auto63.2

227Teleop111.5

93.9Endgame28.3

1Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	43
teleop	135	77
endgame	24	50
foul	0	20
total	226	190

Result

Final score

226 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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