Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

493.2 – 182.27

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

528 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1087.8 ±8.7

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 35.61Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 318.04Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 139.55Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±7.8

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX -0.53Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 66.15Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 116.65Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 581, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.2 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9470, 581, 3045

Auto

107.1 22%

Teleop

303.8 62%

Endgame

76.1 16%

Strengths

· 581 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 766, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 766, 6036

Auto

45.5 24%

Teleop

93.0 49%

Endgame

52.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.03 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score493.2pts

Blue projected score182.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 310.9
Score range: 135–540
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 258.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1087.8Season APEX446.8

107.1Auto45.5

303.8Teleop93

76.1Endgame52.6

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	135	57
teleop	286	130
endgame	97	115
foul	10	0
total	528	302

Result

Final score

528 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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