Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.36 – 194.9

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.3 ±11.6

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 37.5Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -16.5Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 114.36Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.8 ±14.5

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 48.97Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 153.49Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX -7.56Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6884, 6506, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6884, 6506, 6418

Auto

34.2 26%

Teleop

73.7 55%

Endgame

25.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4159, 3045, 6410

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4159, 3045, 6410

Auto

46.3 25%

Teleop

109.3 60%

Endgame

27.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score135.4pts

Blue projected score194.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.5
Score range: 88–242
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 258.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.3Season APEX495.8

34.2Auto46.3

73.7Teleop109.3

25.3Endgame27.6

48Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	68
teleop	27	67
endgame	6	4
foul	0	0
total	38	139

Result

Final score

38 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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