Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.69 – 169.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±10.5

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 82.1Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 69.86Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 59.73Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495 ±9.8

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 41.57Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 89.99Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 37.8Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 9470, 6884

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 766, 9470, 6884

Auto

40.0 20%

Teleop

108.0 53%

Endgame

56.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 846, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8793, 846, 7667

Auto

27.0 17%

Teleop

106.0 67%

Endgame

25.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211.7pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.3
Score range: 124–257
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 251.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.4Season APEX495

40Auto27

108Teleop106

56.2Endgame25.9

8Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	68
teleop	58	112
endgame	28	22
foul	15	30
total	113	232

Result

Final score

113 – 232

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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