Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.27 – 97.65

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.2 ±10.5

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 54.81Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 52.65Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 210.81Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501 ±14.5

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 36.74Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 68.78Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX -7.87Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 2854, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.3 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 766, 2854, 973

Auto

46.3 15%

Teleop

135.0 45%

Endgame

120.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 199, 9470, 6410

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 199, 9470, 6410

Auto

18.4 18%

Teleop

78.5 78%

Endgame

3.7 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 47%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.96 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score318.3pts

Blue projected score97.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 47%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.6
Score range: 52–364
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 255.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.2Season APEX501

46.3Auto18.4

135Teleop78.5

120.3Endgame3.7

31Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	14
teleop	200	14
endgame	101	8
foul	0	30
total	375	66

Result

Final score

375 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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