Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.01 – 38.51

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

570 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 122.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.2 ±9.3

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 234.73Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 120.73Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 63.55Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±12.2

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 24.61Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -34.69Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 48.59Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 3045, 8048

/ 100 compat

Projected

419 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 604, 3045, 8048

Auto

84.6 21%

Teleop

234.7 59%

Endgame

81.1 20%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 6506, 4159

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8793, 6506, 4159

Auto

16.5 53%

Teleop

7.0 23%

Endgame

7.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 49%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.12 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score419pts

Blue projected score38.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 380.5
Score range: -6–464
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 702 vs event baseline 251.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

871.2Season APEX335

84.6Auto16.5

234.7Teleop7

81.1Endgame7.5

77Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	36
teleop	377	56
endgame	135	35
foul	0	5
total	570	132

Result

Final score

570 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 122.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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