Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

456.3 – 238.56

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 198.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±11.6

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 255.5Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 116.36Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 84.44Rank 31Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.6 ±9.8

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 133.2Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX -32.73Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 138.09Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, 6884, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.3 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 841, 6884, 668

Auto

87.7 20%

Teleop

264.9 60%

Endgame

91.7 21%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6962, 10339, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6962, 10339, 5940

Auto

65.8 25%

Teleop

147.0 57%

Endgame

45.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.68 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score456.3pts

Blue projected score238.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 52%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.7
Score range: 194–501
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 252.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX624.6

87.7Auto65.8

264.9Teleop147

91.7Endgame45.5

54Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	74
teleop	77	229
endgame	55	64
foul	5	15
total	203	382

Result

Final score

203 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 198.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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