Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.14 – 107.92

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.4 ±13.9

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 9.02Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 59.43Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 31.69Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 80.2 ±8

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 65.57Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 23.96Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 18.39Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6410, 8048, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6410, 8048, 7667

Auto

23.9 31%

Teleop

36.2 47%

Endgame

16.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 199, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 199, NaN

Auto

14.2 14%

Teleop

79.4 77%

Endgame

9.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 53–155
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 260.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.4Season APEX80.2

23.9Auto14.2

36.2Teleop79.4

16.5Endgame9.9

75Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	14
teleop	56	13
endgame	4	14
foul	0	0
total	106	41

Result

Final score

106 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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