Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.7 – 344.95

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±10.5

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX -27.09Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -6.43Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 58.22Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.6 ±12.2

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 127.96Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -21.67Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 238.66Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10339, 6506, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.7 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10339, 6506, 9470

Auto

14.9 55%

Teleop

9.2 34%

Endgame

3.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9584, 4186, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9584, 4186, 841

Auto

48.6 15%

Teleop

216.9 66%

Endgame

62.8 19%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score24.7pts

Blue projected score345pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -320.2
Score range: -22–392
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 262.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586Season APEX396.6

14.9Auto48.6

9.2Teleop216.9

3.1Endgame62.8

62Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	63
teleop	4	261
endgame	3	101
foul	0	0
total	19	425

Result

Final score

19 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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