Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

376.51 – 437.69

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

324 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.4 ±11.7

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 57.76Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 98.27Rank 31Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 220.48Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 788.8 ±9.9

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 53.97Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 256.13Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 127.59Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4159, 668, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4159, 668, 604

Auto

62.6 17%

Teleop

207.5 57%

Endgame

96.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 581, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.7 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2854, 581, 5940

Auto

96.5 23%

Teleop

237.6 58%

Endgame

77.9 19%

Strengths

· 581 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score376.5pts

Blue projected score437.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 64%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 331–484
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 256.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.4Season APEX788.8

62.6Auto96.5

207.5Teleop237.6

96.3Endgame77.9

13Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	94
teleop	149	290
endgame	113	117
foul	0	0
total	324	501

Result

Final score

324 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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