Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.36 – 175.14

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 217.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 821.6 ±9.3

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 38.84Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 27.19Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX -36.67Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.3 ±12.2

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 20.19Rank 28Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 105.48Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 49.47Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 3045, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5940, 3045, 8793

Auto

23.0 100%

Teleop

-15.1 0%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 199, 6418, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 199, 6418, 5924

Auto

20.9 12%

Teleop

124.5 69%

Endgame

34.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score29.4pts

Blue projected score175.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.8
Score range: -16–220
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 248.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

821.6Season APEX269.3

23Auto20.9

-15.1Teleop124.5

-1.9Endgame34.9

72Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	20
teleop	256	99
endgame	72	37
foul	15	0
total	445	156

Result

Final score

445 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 217.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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